What is Progress Software Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Progress Software Corp's reported free cash flow gives $146.82 per share. The share price was $43.87 on November 10, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $79.24 | +81% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $146.82 | +235% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $272.68 | +522% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $198.00 | $213.95 | $233.45 | $257.83 | $289.17 |
| 8.0% | $159.56 | $169.90 | $182.13 | $196.81 | $214.74 |
| 9.0% | $131.59 | $138.66 | $146.82 | $156.35 | $167.60 |
| 10.0% | $110.38 | $115.41 | $121.11 | $127.63 | $135.15 |
| 11.0% | $93.78 | $97.47 | $101.59 | $106.23 | $111.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Progress Software Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions