What is PROG Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on PROG Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $86.42 per share. The share price was $38.43 on November 10, 2026, 56% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -5.5% | 10.0% | $47.23 | +23% |
| Base | -0.5% | 9.0% | $86.42 | +125% |
| Bull | 4.5% | 8.0% | $162.72 | +323% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $113.40 | $121.46 | $131.31 | $143.63 | $159.46 |
| 8.0% | $93.41 | $98.63 | $104.81 | $112.22 | $121.28 |
| 9.0% | $78.73 | $82.30 | $86.42 | $91.24 | $96.92 |
| 10.0% | $67.49 | $70.03 | $72.91 | $76.21 | $80.00 |
| 11.0% | $58.61 | $60.48 | $62.56 | $64.90 | $67.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at PROG Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-0.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions