What is Pool Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pool Corp's reported free cash flow gives $130.91 per share. The share price was $164.91 on September 25, 2026, 26% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $68.62 | -58% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $130.91 | -21% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $247.21 | +50% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $175.77 | $189.46 | $206.19 | $227.10 | $253.99 |
| 8.0% | $142.30 | $151.17 | $161.67 | $174.26 | $189.65 |
| 9.0% | $117.84 | $123.91 | $130.91 | $139.08 | $148.74 |
| 10.0% | $99.20 | $103.52 | $108.41 | $114.00 | $120.45 |
| 11.0% | $84.55 | $87.71 | $91.25 | $95.23 | $99.74 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pool Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions