What is CPI Card Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on CPI Card Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $72.55 per share. The share price was $24.75 on September 25, 2026, 66% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $37.32 | +51% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $72.55 | +193% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $142.76 | +477% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $99.35 | $107.64 | $117.77 | $130.43 | $146.71 |
| 8.0% | $79.27 | $84.65 | $91.00 | $98.62 | $107.93 |
| 9.0% | $64.64 | $68.31 | $72.55 | $77.50 | $83.34 |
| 10.0% | $53.52 | $56.13 | $59.09 | $62.48 | $66.38 |
| 11.0% | $44.80 | $46.72 | $48.86 | $51.27 | $54.00 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at CPI Card Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions