What is Philip Morris International Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Philip Morris International Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $45.04 per share. The share price was $194.25 on November 10, 2026, 331% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $19.59 | -90% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $45.04 | -77% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $92.48 | -52% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.97 | $66.95 | $73.04 | $80.65 | $90.43 |
| 8.0% | $49.48 | $52.71 | $56.53 | $61.11 | $66.71 |
| 9.0% | $40.28 | $42.49 | $45.04 | $48.01 | $51.52 |
| 10.0% | $33.21 | $34.78 | $36.56 | $38.60 | $40.95 |
| 11.0% | $27.61 | $28.76 | $30.05 | $31.50 | $33.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Philip Morris International Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-11.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions