What is Philip Morris International Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Philip Morris International Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $44.12 per share. The share price was $190.48 on September 25, 2026, 332% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $18.68 | -90% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $44.12 | -77% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $91.57 | -52% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.06 | $66.04 | $72.13 | $79.74 | $89.52 |
| 8.0% | $48.57 | $51.80 | $55.62 | $60.20 | $65.80 |
| 9.0% | $39.37 | $41.58 | $44.12 | $47.10 | $50.61 |
| 10.0% | $32.30 | $33.87 | $35.65 | $37.69 | $40.03 |
| 11.0% | $26.70 | $27.85 | $29.14 | $30.58 | $32.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Philip Morris International Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-11.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions