What is Palantir Technologies Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Palantir Technologies Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $27.85 per share. The share price was $189.67 on September 25, 2026, 581% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $17.23 | -91% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $27.85 | -85% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $47.61 | -75% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $35.88 | $38.39 | $41.45 | $45.28 | $50.21 |
| 8.0% | $29.85 | $31.47 | $33.39 | $35.70 | $38.51 |
| 9.0% | $25.45 | $26.56 | $27.85 | $29.34 | $31.11 |
| 10.0% | $22.12 | $22.91 | $23.81 | $24.83 | $26.01 |
| 11.0% | $19.52 | $20.09 | $20.74 | $21.47 | $22.30 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Palantir Technologies Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (32.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions