What is Douglas Dynamics, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Douglas Dynamics, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $53.76 per share. The share price was $39.74 on September 25, 2026, 26% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $33.51 | -16% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $53.76 | +35% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $94.12 | +137% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $68.71 | $73.27 | $78.85 | $85.83 | $94.80 |
| 8.0% | $57.55 | $60.51 | $64.01 | $68.21 | $73.34 |
| 9.0% | $49.40 | $51.42 | $53.76 | $56.48 | $59.70 |
| 10.0% | $43.18 | $44.62 | $46.26 | $48.12 | $50.27 |
| 11.0% | $38.30 | $39.36 | $40.53 | $41.86 | $43.37 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Douglas Dynamics, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions