What is Douglas Dynamics, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Douglas Dynamics, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $53.91 per share. The share price was $37.33 on November 10, 2026, 31% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $33.67 | -10% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $53.91 | +44% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $94.27 | +153% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $68.86 | $73.43 | $79.01 | $85.98 | $94.95 |
| 8.0% | $57.70 | $60.66 | $64.16 | $68.36 | $73.49 |
| 9.0% | $49.55 | $51.57 | $53.91 | $56.63 | $59.85 |
| 10.0% | $43.34 | $44.78 | $46.41 | $48.27 | $50.42 |
| 11.0% | $38.45 | $39.51 | $40.69 | $42.01 | $43.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Douglas Dynamics, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions