What is Packaging Corp of America worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Packaging Corp of America's reported free cash flow gives $119.62 per share. The share price was $237.18 on September 25, 2026, 98% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $58.59 | -75% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $119.62 | -50% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $233.55 | -2% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $163.56 | $176.97 | $193.36 | $213.85 | $240.19 |
| 8.0% | $130.77 | $139.47 | $149.75 | $162.08 | $177.15 |
| 9.0% | $106.81 | $112.75 | $119.62 | $127.62 | $137.08 |
| 10.0% | $88.55 | $92.78 | $97.57 | $103.05 | $109.37 |
| 11.0% | $74.20 | $77.30 | $80.76 | $84.66 | $89.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Packaging Corp of America's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions