What is Pultegroup Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pultegroup Inc's reported free cash flow gives $215.52 per share. The share price was $132.04 on November 10, 2026, 39% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $136.63 | +3% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $215.52 | +63% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $372.78 | +182% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $274.85 | $293.11 | $315.42 | $343.32 | $379.18 |
| 8.0% | $230.46 | $242.30 | $256.30 | $273.09 | $293.61 |
| 9.0% | $198.08 | $206.18 | $215.52 | $226.41 | $239.29 |
| 10.0% | $173.45 | $179.21 | $185.73 | $193.19 | $201.79 |
| 11.0% | $154.12 | $158.34 | $163.06 | $168.37 | $174.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pultegroup Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions