What is Progressive Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Progressive Corp's reported free cash flow gives $966.62 per share. The share price was $205.50 on September 25, 2026, 79% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $587.45 | +186% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $966.62 | +370% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,672.65 | +714% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,253.70 | $1,343.21 | $1,452.61 | $1,589.37 | $1,765.20 |
| 8.0% | $1,038.04 | $1,096.09 | $1,164.69 | $1,247.02 | $1,347.63 |
| 9.0% | $881.14 | $920.82 | $966.62 | $1,020.05 | $1,083.19 |
| 10.0% | $762.16 | $790.38 | $822.37 | $858.93 | $901.11 |
| 11.0% | $669.06 | $689.76 | $712.88 | $738.90 | $768.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Progressive Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions