What is Provident Financial Services Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Provident Financial Services Inc's reported free cash flow gives $83.34 per share. The share price was $22.84 on September 25, 2026, 73% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $51.66 | +126% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $83.34 | +265% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $142.43 | +524% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $106.70 | $113.90 | $122.70 | $133.70 | $147.85 |
| 8.0% | $89.21 | $93.88 | $99.40 | $106.03 | $114.12 |
| 9.0% | $76.46 | $79.66 | $83.34 | $87.64 | $92.72 |
| 10.0% | $66.77 | $69.04 | $71.62 | $74.56 | $77.95 |
| 11.0% | $59.17 | $60.83 | $62.69 | $64.79 | $67.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Provident Financial Services Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions