What is Pfizer Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pfizer Inc's reported free cash flow gives $24.80 per share. The share price was $28.67 on September 25, 2026, 16% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $11.35 | -60% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $24.80 | -14% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $51.62 | +80% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $34.86 | $37.95 | $41.72 | $46.44 | $52.50 |
| 8.0% | $27.34 | $29.34 | $31.71 | $34.55 | $38.02 |
| 9.0% | $21.85 | $23.22 | $24.80 | $26.64 | $28.82 |
| 10.0% | $17.67 | $18.65 | $19.75 | $21.01 | $22.47 |
| 11.0% | $14.39 | $15.11 | $15.91 | $16.80 | $17.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pfizer Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions