What is Pepsico Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pepsico Inc's reported free cash flow gives $115.54 per share. The share price was $128.63 on September 25, 2026, 11% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $73.60 | -43% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $115.54 | -10% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $193.83 | +51% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $145.73 | $154.95 | $166.21 | $180.29 | $198.39 |
| 8.0% | $123.20 | $129.18 | $136.24 | $144.72 | $155.08 |
| 9.0% | $106.74 | $110.82 | $115.54 | $121.04 | $127.54 |
| 10.0% | $94.19 | $97.10 | $100.39 | $104.16 | $108.50 |
| 11.0% | $84.33 | $86.46 | $88.84 | $91.52 | $94.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pepsico Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions