What is Pepsico Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pepsico Inc's reported free cash flow gives $85.94 per share. The share price was $143.35 on November 10, 2026, 67% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $44.01 | -69% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $85.94 | -40% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $164.23 | +15% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $116.14 | $125.35 | $136.62 | $150.70 | $168.80 |
| 8.0% | $93.61 | $99.58 | $106.65 | $115.12 | $125.48 |
| 9.0% | $77.14 | $81.23 | $85.94 | $91.44 | $97.94 |
| 10.0% | $64.60 | $67.50 | $70.80 | $74.56 | $78.90 |
| 11.0% | $54.73 | $56.86 | $59.25 | $61.92 | $64.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pepsico Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions