What is Penumbra Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Penumbra Inc's reported free cash flow gives $153.57 per share. The share price was $321.46 on November 10, 2026, 109% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $95.85 | -70% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $153.57 | -52% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $261.05 | -19% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $197.27 | $210.90 | $227.55 | $248.37 | $275.13 |
| 8.0% | $164.44 | $173.28 | $183.72 | $196.25 | $211.57 |
| 9.0% | $140.56 | $146.60 | $153.57 | $161.70 | $171.31 |
| 10.0% | $122.44 | $126.74 | $131.61 | $137.17 | $143.60 |
| 11.0% | $108.27 | $111.42 | $114.94 | $118.90 | $123.39 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Penumbra Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions