What is Pegasystems Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pegasystems Inc's reported free cash flow gives $72.05 per share. The share price was $33.75 on September 25, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $45.06 | +34% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $72.05 | +114% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $125.84 | +273% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $92.58 | $98.93 | $106.69 | $116.39 | $128.86 |
| 8.0% | $77.20 | $81.32 | $86.18 | $92.02 | $99.16 |
| 9.0% | $65.99 | $68.80 | $72.05 | $75.84 | $80.32 |
| 10.0% | $57.47 | $59.47 | $61.74 | $64.33 | $67.32 |
| 11.0% | $50.79 | $52.26 | $53.90 | $55.75 | $57.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pegasystems Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions