What is Pebblebrook Hotel Trust worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's reported free cash flow gives $27.46 per share. The share price was $18.42 on September 25, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $10.58 | -43% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $27.46 | +49% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $58.88 | +220% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $40.23 | $44.22 | $49.09 | $55.17 | $63.00 |
| 8.0% | $30.64 | $33.22 | $36.27 | $39.94 | $44.42 |
| 9.0% | $23.65 | $25.42 | $27.46 | $29.84 | $32.65 |
| 10.0% | $18.36 | $19.61 | $21.04 | $22.66 | $24.54 |
| 11.0% | $14.21 | $15.14 | $16.16 | $17.32 | $18.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions