What is PagerDuty, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on PagerDuty, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $42.27 per share. The share price was $14.38 on September 25, 2026, 66% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $26.67 | +85% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $42.27 | +194% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $71.33 | +396% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $54.09 | $57.77 | $62.27 | $67.90 | $75.13 |
| 8.0% | $45.21 | $47.60 | $50.42 | $53.81 | $57.95 |
| 9.0% | $38.76 | $40.39 | $42.27 | $44.47 | $47.07 |
| 10.0% | $33.86 | $35.02 | $36.34 | $37.84 | $39.58 |
| 11.0% | $30.03 | $30.88 | $31.83 | $32.90 | $34.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at PagerDuty, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions