What is Paccar Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Paccar Inc's reported free cash flow gives $163.09 per share. The share price was $111.31 on September 25, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $104.05 | -7% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $163.09 | +47% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $280.81 | +152% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $207.24 | $220.79 | $237.35 | $258.06 | $284.67 |
| 8.0% | $174.24 | $183.03 | $193.41 | $205.88 | $221.11 |
| 9.0% | $150.15 | $156.16 | $163.09 | $171.18 | $180.74 |
| 10.0% | $131.82 | $136.10 | $140.94 | $146.47 | $152.86 |
| 11.0% | $117.43 | $120.56 | $124.06 | $128.00 | $132.46 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Paccar Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions