What is Paychex Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Paychex Inc's reported free cash flow gives $148.45 per share. The share price was $101.37 on September 25, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $86.54 | -15% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $148.45 | +46% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $263.93 | +160% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $194.09 | $208.16 | $225.36 | $246.87 | $274.51 |
| 8.0% | $159.92 | $169.05 | $179.84 | $192.78 | $208.60 |
| 9.0% | $135.01 | $141.25 | $148.45 | $156.85 | $166.78 |
| 10.0% | $116.07 | $120.51 | $125.54 | $131.28 | $137.92 |
| 11.0% | $101.21 | $104.46 | $108.10 | $112.19 | $116.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Paychex Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions