What is Patrick Industries Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Patrick Industries Inc's reported free cash flow gives $129.33 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $65.27 | - |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $129.33 | - |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $257.04 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $177.52 | $192.34 | $210.46 | $233.12 | $262.24 |
| 8.0% | $141.47 | $151.08 | $162.45 | $176.08 | $192.75 |
| 9.0% | $115.17 | $121.74 | $129.33 | $138.18 | $148.64 |
| 10.0% | $95.17 | $99.84 | $105.14 | $111.20 | $118.18 |
| 11.0% | $79.47 | $82.90 | $86.73 | $91.04 | $95.92 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Patrick Industries Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions