What is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $192.47 per share. The share price was $209.62 on September 25, 2026, 9% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $103.73 | -51% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $192.47 | -8% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $358.04 | +71% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $257.52 | $277.53 | $301.99 | $332.56 | $371.86 |
| 8.0% | $208.86 | $221.84 | $237.17 | $255.58 | $278.07 |
| 9.0% | $173.36 | $182.23 | $192.47 | $204.42 | $218.53 |
| 10.0% | $146.36 | $152.67 | $159.82 | $167.99 | $177.42 |
| 11.0% | $125.17 | $129.79 | $134.96 | $140.78 | $147.37 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions