What is Blue Owl Capital Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $54.31 per share. The share price was $9.32 on September 25, 2026, 83% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $30.84 | +231% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $54.31 | +483% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $98.01 | +952% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $72.08 | $77.62 | $84.39 | $92.86 | $103.74 |
| 8.0% | $58.73 | $62.32 | $66.57 | $71.67 | $77.90 |
| 9.0% | $49.02 | $51.48 | $54.31 | $57.62 | $61.53 |
| 10.0% | $41.65 | $43.40 | $45.38 | $47.64 | $50.26 |
| 11.0% | $35.89 | $37.17 | $38.60 | $40.21 | $42.04 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (63.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions