What is Ovintiv Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ovintiv Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $115.90 per share. The share price was $60.13 on September 25, 2026, 48% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $66.68 | +11% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $115.90 | +93% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $207.75 | +246% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $151.77 | $162.78 | $176.23 | $193.04 | $214.66 |
| 8.0% | $124.96 | $132.10 | $140.53 | $150.66 | $163.03 |
| 9.0% | $105.39 | $110.27 | $115.90 | $122.47 | $130.23 |
| 10.0% | $90.50 | $93.97 | $97.90 | $102.40 | $107.58 |
| 11.0% | $78.80 | $81.35 | $84.19 | $87.39 | $91.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ovintiv Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions