What is Oshkosh Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Oshkosh Corp's reported free cash flow gives $214.33 per share. The share price was $138.64 on November 10, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $133.26 | -4% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $214.33 | +55% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $375.97 | +171% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $274.95 | $293.56 | $316.30 | $344.73 | $381.28 |
| 8.0% | $229.64 | $241.71 | $255.97 | $273.08 | $293.99 |
| 9.0% | $196.56 | $204.81 | $214.33 | $225.44 | $238.56 |
| 10.0% | $171.39 | $177.26 | $183.91 | $191.51 | $200.28 |
| 11.0% | $151.63 | $155.93 | $160.74 | $166.14 | $172.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Oshkosh Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions