What is Oshkosh Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Oshkosh Corp's reported free cash flow gives $209.57 per share. The share price was $132.75 on September 25, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $128.49 | -3% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $209.57 | +58% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $371.20 | +180% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $270.19 | $288.80 | $311.54 | $339.96 | $376.51 |
| 8.0% | $224.87 | $236.94 | $251.20 | $268.31 | $289.23 |
| 9.0% | $191.80 | $200.05 | $209.57 | $220.67 | $233.80 |
| 10.0% | $166.63 | $172.50 | $179.15 | $186.74 | $195.51 |
| 11.0% | $146.86 | $151.16 | $155.97 | $161.38 | $167.51 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Oshkosh Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions