What is Oscar Health, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Oscar Health, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $147.17 per share. The share price was $29.60 on September 25, 2026, 80% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $94.87 | +221% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $147.17 | +397% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $244.55 | +726% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $186.77 | $199.11 | $214.20 | $233.07 | $257.32 |
| 8.0% | $157.02 | $165.03 | $174.49 | $185.84 | $199.72 |
| 9.0% | $135.38 | $140.85 | $147.17 | $154.54 | $163.25 |
| 10.0% | $118.97 | $122.86 | $127.27 | $132.32 | $138.13 |
| 11.0% | $106.13 | $108.98 | $112.17 | $115.76 | $119.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Oscar Health, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (124.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions