What is Oscar Health, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Oscar Health, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $148.66 per share. The share price was $33.47 on November 10, 2026, 77% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $96.36 | +188% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $148.66 | +344% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $246.04 | +635% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $188.25 | $200.60 | $215.69 | $234.55 | $258.81 |
| 8.0% | $158.51 | $166.52 | $175.98 | $187.33 | $201.21 |
| 9.0% | $136.87 | $142.34 | $148.66 | $156.03 | $164.74 |
| 10.0% | $120.46 | $124.35 | $128.76 | $133.80 | $139.62 |
| 11.0% | $107.62 | $110.47 | $113.66 | $117.25 | $121.31 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Oscar Health, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (124.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions