What is Orrstown Financial Services Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Orrstown Financial Services Inc's reported free cash flow gives $126.83 per share. The share price was $44.32 on November 10, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $79.61 | +80% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $126.83 | +186% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $214.76 | +385% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $162.59 | $173.74 | $187.36 | $204.39 | $226.29 |
| 8.0% | $135.73 | $142.96 | $151.50 | $161.76 | $174.29 |
| 9.0% | $116.19 | $121.13 | $126.83 | $133.49 | $141.35 |
| 10.0% | $101.37 | $104.89 | $108.87 | $113.42 | $118.68 |
| 11.0% | $89.78 | $92.35 | $95.23 | $98.47 | $102.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Orrstown Financial Services Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions