What is O Reilly Automotive Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on O Reilly Automotive Inc's reported free cash flow gives $35.51 per share. The share price was $86.12 on September 25, 2026, 142% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $18.70 | -78% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $35.51 | -59% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $66.88 | -22% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $47.83 | $51.63 | $56.26 | $62.05 | $69.49 |
| 8.0% | $38.62 | $41.08 | $43.98 | $47.47 | $51.73 |
| 9.0% | $31.89 | $33.57 | $35.51 | $37.78 | $40.45 |
| 10.0% | $26.78 | $27.97 | $29.33 | $30.88 | $32.66 |
| 11.0% | $22.76 | $23.64 | $24.62 | $25.72 | $26.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at O Reilly Automotive Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions