What is O Reilly Automotive Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on O Reilly Automotive Inc's reported free cash flow gives $34.62 per share. The share price was $89.24 on November 10, 2026, 158% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $17.81 | -80% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $34.62 | -61% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $65.98 | -26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.94 | $50.73 | $55.36 | $61.16 | $68.60 |
| 8.0% | $37.72 | $40.18 | $43.09 | $46.57 | $50.83 |
| 9.0% | $31.00 | $32.68 | $34.62 | $36.88 | $39.56 |
| 10.0% | $25.89 | $27.08 | $28.44 | $29.98 | $31.77 |
| 11.0% | $21.87 | $22.75 | $23.73 | $24.83 | $26.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at O Reilly Automotive Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions