What is Optex Systems Holdings Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Optex Systems Holdings Inc's reported free cash flow gives $23.88 per share. The share price was $10.42 on September 25, 2026, 56% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $14.95 | +43% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $23.88 | +129% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $40.52 | +289% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $30.46 | $32.48 | $34.96 | $38.06 | $42.05 |
| 8.0% | $25.53 | $26.85 | $28.40 | $30.27 | $32.55 |
| 9.0% | $21.94 | $22.84 | $23.88 | $25.09 | $26.52 |
| 10.0% | $19.21 | $19.85 | $20.57 | $21.40 | $22.36 |
| 11.0% | $17.07 | $17.54 | $18.06 | $18.65 | $19.32 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Optex Systems Holdings Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions