What is Old National Bancorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Old National Bancorp's reported free cash flow gives $25.81 per share. The share price was $25.36 on November 9, 2026, 2% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.0% | 10.0% | $17.93 | -29% |
| Base | -2.0% | 9.0% | $25.81 | +2% |
| Bull | 3.0% | 8.0% | $40.52 | +60% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $31.18 | $32.78 | $34.74 | $37.18 | $40.32 |
| 8.0% | $27.21 | $28.24 | $29.47 | $30.94 | $32.74 |
| 9.0% | $24.29 | $25.00 | $25.81 | $26.77 | $27.89 |
| 10.0% | $22.05 | $22.55 | $23.12 | $23.78 | $24.53 |
| 11.0% | $20.28 | $20.65 | $21.06 | $21.52 | $22.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Old National Bancorp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions