What is ON Semiconductor Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on ON Semiconductor Corp's reported free cash flow gives $51.92 per share. The share price was $77.20 on September 25, 2026, 49% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $31.36 | -59% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $51.92 | -33% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $91.95 | +19% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $66.37 | $70.73 | $76.06 | $82.72 | $91.29 |
| 8.0% | $55.62 | $58.45 | $61.79 | $65.81 | $70.71 |
| 9.0% | $47.75 | $49.69 | $51.92 | $54.52 | $57.60 |
| 10.0% | $41.74 | $43.12 | $44.67 | $46.46 | $48.51 |
| 11.0% | $37.00 | $38.01 | $39.14 | $40.40 | $41.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at ON Semiconductor Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions