What is Omada Health, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Omada Health, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $21.90 per share. The share price was $14.85 on November 10, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $15.91 | +7% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $21.90 | +47% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $33.06 | +123% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.44 | $27.85 | $29.58 | $31.74 | $34.52 |
| 8.0% | $23.03 | $23.95 | $25.03 | $26.33 | $27.92 |
| 9.0% | $20.55 | $21.18 | $21.90 | $22.75 | $23.74 |
| 10.0% | $18.67 | $19.12 | $19.62 | $20.20 | $20.87 |
| 11.0% | $17.20 | $17.53 | $17.89 | $18.31 | $18.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Omada Health, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (45.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions