What is Okta, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Okta, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $165.50 per share. The share price was $195.19 on September 25, 2026, 18% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $102.23 | -48% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $165.50 | -15% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $283.31 | +45% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $213.40 | $228.34 | $246.60 | $269.42 | $298.76 |
| 8.0% | $177.42 | $187.10 | $198.55 | $212.29 | $229.08 |
| 9.0% | $151.23 | $157.86 | $165.50 | $174.41 | $184.95 |
| 10.0% | $131.38 | $136.09 | $141.43 | $147.53 | $154.57 |
| 11.0% | $115.85 | $119.30 | $123.16 | $127.50 | $132.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Okta, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions