What is Orion S.A. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Orion S.A.'s reported free cash flow gives $6.14 per share. The share price was $5.89 on September 25, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | -$2.62 | -144% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $6.14 | +4% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $23.60 | +301% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $12.73 | $14.76 | $17.23 | $20.33 | $24.31 |
| 8.0% | $7.80 | $9.12 | $10.67 | $12.53 | $14.81 |
| 9.0% | $4.21 | $5.10 | $6.14 | $7.35 | $8.78 |
| 10.0% | $1.47 | $2.11 | $2.83 | $3.66 | $4.62 |
| 11.0% | -$0.67 | -$0.21 | $0.32 | $0.91 | $1.57 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Orion S.A.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions