What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $91.39 per share. The share price was $173.30 on September 25, 2026, 90% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $57.59 | -67% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $91.39 | -47% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $158.77 | -8% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $116.35 | $123.97 | $133.29 | $144.93 | $159.90 |
| 8.0% | $97.72 | $102.66 | $108.50 | $115.51 | $124.08 |
| 9.0% | $84.11 | $87.49 | $91.39 | $95.93 | $101.31 |
| 10.0% | $73.74 | $76.14 | $78.86 | $81.98 | $85.57 |
| 11.0% | $65.58 | $67.34 | $69.31 | $71.53 | $74.04 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions