What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $92.25 per share. The share price was $166.65 on November 10, 2026, 81% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $58.45 | -65% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $92.25 | -45% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $159.63 | -4% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $117.21 | $124.83 | $134.15 | $145.79 | $160.76 |
| 8.0% | $98.58 | $103.52 | $109.36 | $116.37 | $124.94 |
| 9.0% | $84.97 | $88.35 | $92.25 | $96.80 | $102.17 |
| 10.0% | $74.60 | $77.00 | $79.72 | $82.84 | $86.43 |
| 11.0% | $66.44 | $68.20 | $70.17 | $72.39 | $74.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions