What is Realty Income Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Realty Income Corp's reported free cash flow gives $141.12 per share. The share price was $55.54 on September 25, 2026, 61% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $85.98 | +55% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $141.12 | +154% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $243.78 | +339% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $182.86 | $195.88 | $211.79 | $231.67 | $257.24 |
| 8.0% | $151.50 | $159.94 | $169.92 | $181.89 | $196.52 |
| 9.0% | $128.69 | $134.46 | $141.12 | $148.89 | $158.07 |
| 10.0% | $111.39 | $115.49 | $120.14 | $125.46 | $131.59 |
| 11.0% | $97.85 | $100.86 | $104.22 | $108.00 | $112.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Realty Income Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (28.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions