What is NXP Semiconductors N.V. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s reported free cash flow gives $170.25 per share. The share price was $238.08 on September 25, 2026, 40% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $94.37 | -60% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $170.25 | -28% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $321.53 | +35% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $226.64 | $243.90 | $265.00 | $291.38 | $325.29 |
| 8.0% | $184.52 | $195.72 | $208.95 | $224.82 | $244.23 |
| 9.0% | $153.76 | $161.42 | $170.25 | $180.55 | $192.73 |
| 10.0% | $130.34 | $135.78 | $141.95 | $149.00 | $157.14 |
| 11.0% | $111.94 | $115.93 | $120.39 | $125.41 | $131.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions