What is Nvidia Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nvidia Corp's reported free cash flow gives $129.85 per share. The share price was $225.07 on September 25, 2026, 73% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $78.72 | -65% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $129.85 | -42% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $225.06 | -0% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $168.56 | $180.63 | $195.38 | $213.82 | $237.53 |
| 8.0% | $139.48 | $147.31 | $156.56 | $167.66 | $181.23 |
| 9.0% | $118.32 | $123.68 | $129.85 | $137.06 | $145.57 |
| 10.0% | $102.28 | $106.09 | $110.40 | $115.33 | $121.02 |
| 11.0% | $89.73 | $92.52 | $95.64 | $99.15 | $103.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nvidia Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (66.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions