What is Northern Trust Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Northern Trust Corp's reported free cash flow gives $588.69 per share. The share price was $177.89 on November 10, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $375.56 | +111% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $588.69 | +231% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $986.57 | +455% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $742.15 | $788.98 | $846.23 | $917.78 | $1,009.79 |
| 8.0% | $627.64 | $658.01 | $693.91 | $736.99 | $789.63 |
| 9.0% | $543.96 | $564.73 | $588.69 | $616.65 | $649.69 |
| 10.0% | $480.21 | $494.98 | $511.72 | $530.84 | $552.92 |
| 11.0% | $430.08 | $440.90 | $453.00 | $466.62 | $482.04 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Northern Trust Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions