What is Napco Security Technologies, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Napco Security Technologies, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $48.52 per share. The share price was $31.34 on November 10, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $31.41 | +0% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $48.52 | +55% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $82.62 | +164% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.57 | $65.60 | $70.53 | $76.70 | $84.62 |
| 8.0% | $51.79 | $54.41 | $57.50 | $61.21 | $65.75 |
| 9.0% | $44.67 | $46.46 | $48.52 | $50.93 | $53.78 |
| 10.0% | $39.26 | $40.53 | $41.97 | $43.62 | $45.52 |
| 11.0% | $35.02 | $35.95 | $36.99 | $38.16 | $39.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Napco Security Technologies, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions