What is Napco Security Technologies, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Napco Security Technologies, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $48.61 per share. The share price was $35.66 on September 25, 2026, 27% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $31.49 | -12% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $48.61 | +36% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $82.71 | +132% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.65 | $65.69 | $70.62 | $76.78 | $84.70 |
| 8.0% | $51.88 | $54.49 | $57.59 | $61.30 | $65.83 |
| 9.0% | $44.76 | $46.54 | $48.61 | $51.02 | $53.86 |
| 10.0% | $39.34 | $40.62 | $42.06 | $43.71 | $45.61 |
| 11.0% | $35.10 | $36.03 | $37.08 | $38.25 | $39.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Napco Security Technologies, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions