What is Norfolk Southern Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Norfolk Southern Corp's reported free cash flow gives $100.92 per share. The share price was $313.00 on September 25, 2026, 210% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $36.12 | -88% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $100.92 | -68% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $227.12 | -27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $147.08 | $161.10 | $178.22 | $199.63 | $227.16 |
| 8.0% | $112.70 | $121.78 | $132.52 | $145.41 | $161.16 |
| 9.0% | $87.54 | $93.75 | $100.92 | $109.29 | $119.17 |
| 10.0% | $68.35 | $72.77 | $77.78 | $83.50 | $90.10 |
| 11.0% | $53.24 | $56.48 | $60.10 | $64.18 | $68.79 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Norfolk Southern Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions