What is Norfolk Southern Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Norfolk Southern Corp's reported free cash flow gives $103.28 per share. The share price was $327.93 on November 10, 2026, 218% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $38.49 | -88% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $103.28 | -69% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $229.48 | -30% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $149.44 | $163.46 | $180.59 | $202.00 | $229.52 |
| 8.0% | $115.06 | $124.14 | $134.88 | $147.77 | $163.53 |
| 9.0% | $89.90 | $96.11 | $103.28 | $111.65 | $121.53 |
| 10.0% | $70.71 | $75.13 | $80.14 | $85.86 | $92.47 |
| 11.0% | $55.60 | $58.84 | $62.46 | $66.54 | $71.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Norfolk Southern Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions