What is Nrg Energy, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nrg Energy, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $10.44 per share. The share price was $100.37 on September 25, 2026, 861% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$39.46 | -139% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $10.44 | -90% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $103.37 | +3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $48.23 | $60.01 | $74.41 | $92.40 | $115.55 |
| 8.0% | $19.84 | $27.48 | $36.51 | $47.35 | $60.59 |
| 9.0% | -$0.81 | $4.42 | $10.44 | $17.47 | $25.78 |
| 10.0% | -$16.47 | -$12.75 | -$8.54 | -$3.73 | $1.82 |
| 11.0% | -$28.72 | -$26.00 | -$22.95 | -$19.53 | -$15.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nrg Energy, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions