What is Nrg Energy, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nrg Energy, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.08 per share. The share price was $96.53 on November 10, 2026, 699% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | -$37.82 | -139% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $12.08 | -87% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $105.00 | +9% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $49.86 | $61.65 | $76.04 | $94.04 | $117.18 |
| 8.0% | $21.48 | $29.12 | $38.15 | $48.98 | $62.23 |
| 9.0% | $0.83 | $6.05 | $12.08 | $19.11 | $27.42 |
| 10.0% | -$14.83 | -$11.11 | -$6.90 | -$2.09 | $3.46 |
| 11.0% | -$27.08 | -$24.36 | -$21.31 | -$17.89 | -$14.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nrg Energy, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions