What is NOV Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NOV Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $48.48 per share. The share price was $19.86 on September 25, 2026, 59% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $29.87 | +50% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $48.48 | +144% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $85.57 | +331% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $62.31 | $66.54 | $71.71 | $78.18 | $86.49 |
| 8.0% | $51.98 | $54.72 | $57.97 | $61.86 | $66.62 |
| 9.0% | $44.44 | $46.31 | $48.48 | $51.00 | $53.99 |
| 10.0% | $38.69 | $40.03 | $41.54 | $43.27 | $45.26 |
| 11.0% | $34.18 | $35.16 | $36.25 | $37.48 | $38.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NOV Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions