What is NOV Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NOV Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $47.74 per share. The share price was $17.65 on November 10, 2026, 63% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $29.14 | +65% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $47.74 | +170% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $84.84 | +381% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.57 | $65.80 | $70.98 | $77.44 | $85.76 |
| 8.0% | $51.24 | $53.99 | $57.23 | $61.12 | $65.88 |
| 9.0% | $43.70 | $45.58 | $47.74 | $50.27 | $53.25 |
| 10.0% | $37.96 | $39.29 | $40.80 | $42.53 | $44.53 |
| 11.0% | $33.44 | $34.42 | $35.52 | $36.75 | $38.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NOV Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions