What is Northrop Grumman Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Northrop Grumman Corp's reported free cash flow gives $273.05 per share. The share price was $510.52 on September 25, 2026, 87% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $135.81 | -73% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $273.05 | -47% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $540.31 | +6% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $369.53 | $398.65 | $434.23 | $478.71 | $535.90 |
| 8.0% | $297.79 | $316.67 | $338.99 | $365.76 | $398.49 |
| 9.0% | $245.25 | $258.16 | $273.05 | $290.43 | $310.97 |
| 10.0% | $205.11 | $214.29 | $224.70 | $236.59 | $250.31 |
| 11.0% | $173.47 | $180.20 | $187.72 | $196.18 | $205.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Northrop Grumman Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions