What is NMI Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NMI Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $132.65 per share. The share price was $41.23 on September 25, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $82.73 | +101% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $132.65 | +222% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $232.18 | +463% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $170.43 | $182.08 | $196.32 | $214.12 | $237.00 |
| 8.0% | $142.15 | $149.70 | $158.63 | $169.35 | $182.44 |
| 9.0% | $121.53 | $126.69 | $132.65 | $139.61 | $147.83 |
| 10.0% | $105.85 | $109.53 | $113.69 | $118.45 | $123.94 |
| 11.0% | $93.56 | $96.25 | $99.26 | $102.65 | $106.49 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NMI Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions