What is NIKE, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NIKE, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.78 per share. The share price was $38.67 on November 10, 2026, 86% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $12.70 | -67% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $20.78 | -46% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $35.86 | -7% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.40 | $28.10 | $30.17 | $32.75 | $36.07 |
| 8.0% | $22.22 | $23.32 | $24.62 | $26.17 | $28.08 |
| 9.0% | $19.16 | $19.91 | $20.78 | $21.79 | $22.98 |
| 10.0% | $16.82 | $17.35 | $17.96 | $18.65 | $19.44 |
| 11.0% | $14.97 | $15.36 | $15.80 | $16.29 | $16.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NIKE, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions