What is NIKE, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on NIKE, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $21.19 per share. The share price was $35.75 on September 25, 2026, 69% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $13.11 | -63% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $21.19 | -41% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $36.27 | +1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.82 | $28.51 | $30.58 | $33.16 | $36.49 |
| 8.0% | $22.64 | $23.73 | $25.03 | $26.59 | $28.49 |
| 9.0% | $19.57 | $20.32 | $21.19 | $22.20 | $23.39 |
| 10.0% | $17.23 | $17.76 | $18.37 | $19.06 | $19.86 |
| 11.0% | $15.38 | $15.77 | $16.21 | $16.70 | $17.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at NIKE, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions