What is National Healthcare Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on National Healthcare Corp's reported free cash flow gives $211.40 per share. The share price was $227.36 on September 25, 2026, 8% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $130.72 | -43% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $211.40 | -7% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $361.96 | +59% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $270.19 | $288.24 | $310.29 | $337.85 | $373.29 |
| 8.0% | $226.25 | $237.95 | $251.77 | $268.37 | $288.65 |
| 9.0% | $194.17 | $202.17 | $211.40 | $222.17 | $234.89 |
| 10.0% | $169.76 | $175.44 | $181.89 | $189.26 | $197.76 |
| 11.0% | $150.58 | $154.75 | $159.41 | $164.66 | $170.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at National Healthcare Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions