What is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $19.79 per share. The share price was $29.71 on September 25, 2026, 50% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $12.48 | -58% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $19.79 | -33% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $33.44 | +13% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $25.02 | $26.61 | $28.56 | $30.99 | $34.11 |
| 8.0% | $21.12 | $22.15 | $23.37 | $24.84 | $26.63 |
| 9.0% | $18.27 | $18.98 | $19.79 | $20.74 | $21.86 |
| 10.0% | $16.10 | $16.60 | $17.17 | $17.82 | $18.57 |
| 11.0% | $14.39 | $14.75 | $15.17 | $15.63 | $16.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions