What is Netflix Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Netflix Inc's reported free cash flow gives $61.13 per share. The share price was $71.15 on September 25, 2026, 16% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $37.62 | -47% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $61.13 | -14% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $107.97 | +52% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $79.11 | $84.68 | $91.49 | $100.01 | $110.95 |
| 8.0% | $65.63 | $69.24 | $73.51 | $78.64 | $84.90 |
| 9.0% | $55.81 | $58.28 | $61.13 | $64.45 | $68.39 |
| 10.0% | $48.35 | $50.11 | $52.10 | $54.37 | $57.00 |
| 11.0% | $42.50 | $43.79 | $45.23 | $46.85 | $48.69 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Netflix Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions