What is National Fuel Gas Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on National Fuel Gas Co's reported free cash flow gives $19.56 per share. The share price was $78.99 on September 25, 2026, 304% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $2.13 | -97% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $19.56 | -75% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $52.08 | -34% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $32.26 | $36.16 | $40.92 | $46.88 | $54.53 |
| 8.0% | $22.77 | $25.30 | $28.28 | $31.87 | $36.25 |
| 9.0% | $15.84 | $17.57 | $19.56 | $21.89 | $24.64 |
| 10.0% | $10.56 | $11.79 | $13.19 | $14.78 | $16.61 |
| 11.0% | $6.42 | $7.32 | $8.33 | $9.46 | $10.75 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at National Fuel Gas Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions