What is Newmarket Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Newmarket Corp's reported free cash flow gives $965.15 per share. The share price was $695.40 on November 10, 2026, 28% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $573.21 | -18% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $965.15 | +39% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $1,746.63 | +151% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,254.67 | $1,343.06 | $1,451.09 | $1,586.13 | $1,759.75 |
| 8.0% | $1,038.62 | $1,095.94 | $1,163.68 | $1,244.97 | $1,344.33 |
| 9.0% | $880.74 | $919.93 | $965.15 | $1,017.91 | $1,080.26 |
| 10.0% | $760.47 | $788.34 | $819.93 | $856.03 | $897.68 |
| 11.0% | $665.90 | $686.33 | $709.17 | $734.86 | $763.98 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Newmarket Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions